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Nephilim-X

Scott Clifford
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As you can see I'm saving my budget by cutting parts of words out of titles.

Anyway holy shit this recession is going to be bad. Current predictions are for something around the 1970's recession; hopefully it won't go beyond that but I'm bracing for the worst.

Toronto got way too pricey to live in (I couldn't even afford the medication I need and had to calculate my budget down to the single dollar) and so I've ended up moving back to my parents in Chatham. I -was- feeling ashamed until I noticed that a lot of people have moved back home in one context or another. Not naming names but all of my friends in this situation are well educated, with no criminal record and at least decent social skills. Getting part time work is one thing; it's getting a full time job that has an income that can sustain a wholly independent lifestyle that's getting troublesome.

For those wondering precisely what's going on with the economy, this post by FMguru of somethingawful sums it up well.

"It's a perfect storm scenario:

1) The big one right now is that the housing market is melting down, and it turns out that huge sections of our economy were based entirely on the housing market booming forever. Well, the laws of gravity reasserted themselves (as they always do), and the damage keeps spreading and magnifying. Loss of jobs in housing/construction/real estate. Failures of housing companies and mortgage companies. Foreclosures and defaults skyrocket, the value of peoples' houses plummets. Banks suddenly have a ton of money lent out that will never be paid back on collateral that is suddenly worth a lot less than it was. Banks run out of liquidity, creating a credit crunch. Large chunks of the stock market tank, creating a bear market. There's a lack of confidence as nobody knows what anything is worth and the various rating agencies go out of business or have zero credibility. New investment dries up, large chunks of the economy screech to a halt simultaneously (in Silicon Valley, not a single VC-funded firm went IPO last quarter [not year]. Not one. And tech is one of the few economic bright spots!). Now, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and lots of other foundation-stone too-big-too-fail entities are teetering.

2) The other side of that is with consumer spending. Our economy has been propped up for the last decade by those soaring home values. People borrowed zillions of dollars out of their home equity and pumped it into consumption. How do you think people were able to afford all those SUVs and HDTVs and iPhones in an environment where real wages were flat or declining? They were pre-spending the sale price of their homes. Well, the values of the homes have collapsed and that money spigot is shut off. So suddenly car dealers are seeing their sales collapse. So are chain restaurants. So is Starbucks. There's been a big shift in spending from national brands to blue-label store brands. And so on. Consumers have suddenly tightened their purse strings.

3) The fall off in consumer spending, along with the collapse in multiple sectors (see 1 above), leads to a shitty job market. Starbucks closes stores, GM lays off workers and closes plants, Indymac lets half its workers go. Hours are cut, benefits are cut, and nobody complains because they're just happy to have a job.

Can you see the magnifying feedback loops here? The value of houses goes down, so consumers stop spending money like they used to, so jobs are lost, and those unemployed people can't make their house payments, so they default on their house, so the bank has even more bad debt, which makes the market stagger some more and tightens lending, so there's no new investment or jobs being created, so sales forecasts are flat, so business lay off workers and cancel plans to expand, and round and round and round and round. Usually, Uncle Sam steps in to clear out bad debt, restore confidence, and prime the pump to keep the economy humming. But...

4) Through bad policy, the government and the Fed don't have a lot of options. Interest rates are so low, they can't be cut any more. We've been running $300 billion/year deficits for the last 6 years to pay for Bush's war and "stimulus" tax cuts, so there's not much more economic stimulus to be pumped into the system. We've run up an enormous amount of debt under Bush, which we've financed by selling promisory notes overseas (China mostly), which has led to a collapse in the dollar, which is making the price of government borrowing rise even higher. And states are reeling from the loss of property tax revenues, so they're going to be cutting spending and payments and new projects just when they need to start spending on that stuff to stimulate their economies and deal with increased welfare loads.

5) All of that is bad enough, but we're also going through a period of elevated supply costs, which makes everything more expensive. Energy costs have doubled, seemingly permanently, resulting in huge disruptions (and they can still go up!) and raising the price of everything. Food costs are skyrocketing, too - because of energy costs, environmental degradation, biofuel diversion, and shifting weather patterns (see 7 below). And lots of other basic commodities are running low - check out the price of copper, or even weird metals with critical industrial uses like tantalum or niobium.

6) Bad policy plus worthless dollars plus spiking commodity costs = inflation. Most of you aren't old enough to remember pre-1982 America, when inflation was last a problem but I gotta tell ya: it sucked. The only worse was the cure, which was the early Reagan recession that had national unemployment at 10%. Also, this inflationary risk really constrains the Fed's ability to act. Hope you like your economic slumps long-lasting!

7) And there are a whole bunch of long ignored but worsening problems that are coming due soon. The climate crisis is real, and it's worsening faster than the consensus projections indicated. The peak oil people are being proven right. Water supplies are becoming a huge problem worldwide. We've underinvested in decades in infrastructure - public transit, sewage, water, electrical grid, schools, you name it. Medical costs keep skyrocketing 5-10% a year, every year, with no end in sight. Oh, and the boomers are going to start retiring in about 18 months. And the number of undropped shoes grows exponentially as you stare into the future. What are we gonna do if global fisheries collapse completely, or we can't get this honeybee disease situation under control? What if a chain of hurricanes leaves Florida devastated? What if the long-predicted avian flu pandemic finally arrives? The problems are global, and economic and ecological crises will lead to all sorts of political and military and economic disruptions that will spell the end of the long peace we've had since the end of the Cold War. Think of the 1930s: unstable countries, masses of refugees, charismatic opportunists casting about for scapegoats, dwindling resources - fun!

Add it up, and it's bad. Real bad. I get a distinct 1970s vibe from the whole thing - from the supply shocks of the early years to the stagflation of the Carter era. And I think it has a great possibility to get worse rather than better. It took Japan 15 years to dig itself out of the hole the 1989 collapse of their property bubble caused them, and their society was at least socialized enough to provide a safety net for people so they wouldn't be pensionless or homeless or without medical treatment.

And what really has me depressed is the collapse in my faith in our institutions - political, economic, cultural, media - to deal with these problems. You think the American people are capable of making hard choices? You think the media is capable of presenting the problems and the solutions in a way that leads to the right options being supported? You think Wall Street and the GOP (and too many Democrats) won't figure out a way to make money on this whole thing while sticking us with the bill? How long do you think it's going to take for it to sink in - REALLY sink in - that people's houses are never going to be worth what they were five years ago, that the price of gas is never going to go down below $4/gallon, that the stock market might be flat or declining for the next decade (again, like the 1970s)? When are we going to get policy decisions that aren't just selling magic beans like increased offshore drilling or opening ANWR or coal liquifaction or hydrogen or one-shot stimulus checks or gas tax holidays or (lord help us) more capital gains tax cuts?

TL;DR: Yeah, we're fucked."
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*starts a beat at 70 bpm*
*has a black lady come in and sing about booty, love, and/or the jams*
*repeats for five minutes*
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On Religion

7 min read
Welp, it's been over a month since my last serious post. I'll save the life update till the end, because there's some stuff I need to get off my chest.

I'm sure any of you who happens to have known me for any decent amount of time knows my stance regarding religion beating back science. Or at least the teaching of science. I actually have some solid reasons for it too; I spent a large chunk of grade school in a Catholic school, and high school again was Catholic and there was a lot of stuff that wasn't very pretty at all. Save for a few high school teachers (thank you, Mr Wilson, Mr Sasso and a few others whose names shamefully escape me right now), there was a lot of repression. I'm not sure how much of it was intentional, because a lot of the same teachers had lived in the same, heavily religious area of the province their entire lives and so obviously had had stuff fed to them as a kid.

I should qualify just what I mean by heavily religious - I mean heavily Christian. This was a cozy little chunk of Canada that was like a Northern version of the Bible Belt. There were campaigns to move Halloween off of Sunday; there were efforts to toss more Jesus into holidays; there was a lot of disrespect for people not of the Christian faith, to the point where if we expressed an opinion contrary, but innocent, to a Christian belief, we'd get a hellfire and damnation speech in response. There was a lot of creationism enforcement too, which, when I was scared into being a Christian, I grabbed onto. I grew out of it almost as quickly as I fell in, thankfully, though growing out of it also happened at a point where I had access to literature a little more scientific to "if humans came from monkeys why are monkeys still around!".

For a long time I was really angry about it, because I'd realized that I'd been taken, as a child, and made to swear oaths and perform rites that actually had no personal meaning to me at all; this was how it was done, and you better do it, or else you're burning FOREVER. Prayers like the Our Father didn't actually have a meaning, they were just a series of syllables you mouthed because everyone else knew it and it seemed to be mandatory. And this was supposed to be our connection with a divine entity who loved us. But how personal was that love when it was, in many respects, factory processed? We were told to love and worship god, but we really weren't allowed to find a reason to love and worship god outside certain approved ideas (that he sent his son to die for us, that he made us, and so on).

This anger made me lash out quite a bit once I'd finally left that Bible Belt-Buckle, albiet usually in debates on the subject matter to begin with. Whether I was doing it because the topic had strayed into it, or because I felt like ripping a chunk off some religious person and dousing that wound with iodine is.... it's one of those "bit of both" things. It's certainly fine to bring up your beliefs, but I think I did it really abrasively and cruelly.

Part of it was because I was going through another very challenging part of my life. I was learning a lot about myself, having some actual, deep relationships, and life was changing a lot. In high school I was that nerdy kid who hung out with a small circle of other nerds in the back of the cafeteria. In college I was one of the elite. I don't say this to try to pump myself up; I say it because I was (am?) extremely talented at what I was doing and won a lot of respect because of it.

It made me a little pompous and in retrospect I realize I became a little bit like what I'd come to hate: a crusader.

I calmed down after a while, partially because I got into a heavy relationship with a very Christian woman and after the bickerings about creationism settled we'd agree to leave it be. I didn't tell anyone but I was even considering converting back to Christianity (albiet a very liberalized Christianity) for her.

Didn't quite work out.

Once that ended there was a long period of internal strife. Y'know how some people talk about religious experiences? I'd felt that once in a while with her. Y'know, the feeling where everything will be ok, and that maybe, just maybe, there is something that really loves you?

I won't lie, I felt really betrayed once that all ended, both by her and by the divinity I'd begun to want to get to know again. That's all I'll say about her, since that's not important, and it's a subject I deal with only with some very close confidants (and if you, miss, are lurking as you have in the past, please don't get in touch either. It wouldn't be good for either of us). What impacted it all was that it came as part of a series of very damaging blows, physically and emotionally. I won't get into those either, but for a long time I felt absolutely awful, and cast aside.

I was at sort of a crossroads, I think. One of the paths could have led to me becoming even angrier, more vitrolic and spiteful. I won't lie - sometimes I skip on over to that path and tear into people, though usually just for being stupid. Sometimes it's immature and petty, and I'm hoping to grow out of that, really (though sometimes it's totally deserved and I hope I continue doing -that- because sometimes it actually creates a positive change).

I'm not really sure where I am in regards to faith right now. I have a hard time believing in the existence of something divine right now, and again not just because of feeling betrayed, but because of reason. At the same time I'd love to feel that connection some people are so lucky to feel.  In some ways I wish it (religion) had worked for me.

Trent Reznor apparently feels the same sort of jealousy now and then but he totally has a better haircut so cheer up Trent you always have that. :3

If there is one thing that's good, though, it's that I've learned a lot over the past while, and in some cases I'm counsel for certain people. I don't pretend to know much more than they do, or that I can always help, and I can admit I'm wrong sometimes, but when it works out and I know I've helped them feel better and grow a little, I feel that little bit of divinity, just for a moment.

It's nice.

I guess I'll just try to help people for a while.






Ok, now for that life update. Freelancing was fun, but all it takes is a long enough dry patch before you have to consider alternatives unless you have quite a nest egg to use for a while, which I don't. I've been looking for work for a while, but as you might imagine it's competitive. I'm doing telemarketing as a stop gap for now and while I'm not proud of it, it's money - good money, that'll let me support myself, so my parents can focus on supporting my sister and saving for retirement instead of having to toss me some cash. And that having been said, if you get a telemarketer and want them to stop calling you, just say "Please take me off your list". Any "clever" gimmick you think you have is old, tired, and ineffectual.

THIS MEANS YOU ALBERTA YOU PACK OF A.M. COUNTRY RADIO CRANKING REDNECKS NO OTHER PROVINCE DOES THAT SHIT
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So lets assume I have to fight 10 animals, one at a time, till one of us dies. No weapons. I bet some of you are thinking "oh man do a crocodile that'd be so awesome" but fuck that; I think anything that's a hunter and is larger than a dog would probably destroy me because lets face it the closest you guys have come to a life and death struggle is figuring out whether or not you tip a late pizza guy. So here are my ten animals to kill in this hypothetical.

ROUND ONE

THREE TOED SLOTH

they sleep 18 hours a day giving me an extra two hours of time in which to act

ROUND TWO

SEA TURTLE

just flip it on its back and let it bake in the sun that joker is going nowhere

ROUND THREE

SEA MONKEYS

also known as brine shrimp i will just drink the water they are in

ROUND FOUR

CHIHUAHUA

punt whoooooooooooooooooosh thunk

ROUND FIVE

PINK FLAMINGO

i think i could take on a flamingo really i mean it doesn't strike me as a bird of prey it eats shrimp and doesn't seem to be suited for clawing out eyes

ROUND SIX

OYSTER

heh look at this lil oyster whats it gonna do to me besides be served as a totally disgusting aphrodisiac

ROUND SEVEN

FLEA (feline specific)

fleas need the blood of their host species to survive it would eventually die even if it drank from me

ROUND EIGHT

CHICKEN

they can peck and claw so they are the most dangerous of all the animals yet however if i get lucky i can pick it up and bite its head off

ROUND NINE

HEIKE CRAB

they may have the face of a samurai on their carapace but they won't fight like one (they are palm sized)

ROUND TEN

BUNNY RABBI- no wait they have four lucky paws i dont think i could fight an animal that lucky

MEXICAN JUMPING BEAN

jumping beans actually have bugs in them so i think if i maybe baked the bean the bug would die and i could eat like a cowboy that night
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welp

1 min read
Looks like I didn't get it. Ah well.
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the economy is p f in da a by Nephilim-X, journal

in this post I emulate 80s dance music by Nephilim-X, journal

On Religion by Nephilim-X, journal

If I had to fight 10 animals by Nephilim-X, journal

welp by Nephilim-X, journal